Roush-laden fantasy teams best bet for Michigan race

The road courses are behind us and now fantasy owners and drivers can concentrate on the oval tracks for the remainder of the season.

The two-mile tracks of Michigan International Speedway and Auto Club Speedway may showcase some of the best racing in NASCAR. Slightly smaller than Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, that difference means the cars are not fitted with a restrictor plate and all their ponies can run as fast as possible. The track is long enough and the corners wide enough that if a driver has a car capable of running in more than one groove, when he catches his competition he can complete a pass.

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Because cars tend to get strung out on this course, it's not uncommon for the race to go long distances without a yellow flag, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s ability to squeeze a little more Sonoco fuel out of his Chevy this summer helped him get to Victory Lane for his first win with Hendrick Motorsports. It's ironic that he returns to the site of his first victory -- which came in part by pit strategy -- fresh from a track where a bad pit call cost him a shot at finishing in the top 10. Last week, crew chief Tony Eury Jr. left the No. 88 on course way too long and caused Earnhardt to pit by himself under yellow, but this week could provide absolution.

To be successful at Michigan, teams must have the total package: Horsepower, handling, a hero behind the wheel and he-men in the pits. Oh yeah, and a healthy amount of gasoline just in case the caution waves right on their final fuel window. This is one race where it pays to play conservatively, but the occasional dark horse can also be a great value and a differentiator from your competitor's lineup.

Roush Racing
At Michigan, playing it safe means loading your roster with Roushketeers. Each time the series rolls onto either 2-mile track, this team has to be considered a threat not only with their marquee drivers, but all the way through the lineup. As long as he's been running a multi-car team, Jack Roush has almost always placed at least two of his drivers in the top 10 on a 2-mile track. Last spring at Auto Club was a rare exception when Matt Kenseth won with Greg Biffle finishing 15th as the next highest member of this organization, but the rest of that season was much more typical with two of his drivers in the top 10 and the remainder of them finishing respectably.

In the last three races on this track type, Roushketeers have earned four top-fives, eight top-10s and 12 results of 17th or better in 15 combined starts. During those three races, these five drivers have recorded a combined average finish of 10.6, which means that even when they have missed the top spots, it hasn't been by much. Better still, that success is spread across the organization as all of Roush's drivers earned at least a top-15 in the last three 2-mile attempts.

Carl Edwards has been the standard bearer on this track type since he joined the NASCAR fight. From his debut at Michigan in the 2004 GFS Marketplace 400 through this summer's LifeLock 400 he has failed to crack the top 10 only twice in 16 starts at Michigan and Auto Club and he's finished on the lead lap in all but a single event. One of these poor results came when rain altered the finish of the 2006 fall duel at Michigan and he is the closest thing to a guarantee fantasy owners are going to get this week.

Matt Kenseth has four victories on the 2-mile tracks and enters the weekend with a four-race streak of top-10s. If not for an accident in the 2007 Citizens Bank 400, he would most likely have a 13-race top-15 streak going during which he's averaged a result of 4.7 when he's been running at the end. He can't afford to finish badly this week, as he is still in need of a strong run to solidify his standing in the top 12, and the likelihood of him finishing outside the top 10 is low.

Ironically, Greg Biffle is the only Roushketeer without a top-10 on this track type in the past two years, because at times he's been the cream of their crop. In 2004 and 2005, Biffle won back-to-back Michigan races as well as one of Auto Club's events. He swept the top 10 for the remainder of the 2005 season and nearly won again in the second race at Fontana. Unfortunately, NASCAR is about "what have you done lately," and Biffle's best finish on this track type in his last seven attempts has been a pair of 15ths. Still, he has some recent momentum on his side with three top-15s in his last three oval starts this season, so this could be the weekend he breaks back into the top 10.

In this summer's LifeLock 400, Roush placed four of his five drivers in the top 10 and that included dark-horse appearances by Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. That was McMurray's second top-10 at Michigan in his last three attempts and Ragan's career first but with the momentum the second-year driver currently has, he is the better value this week. In his last four oval-track appearances, Ragan has swept the top 15 and has a pair of fifth-place finishes to his credit. Of course, McMurray has also come on strong with a pair of top-10s in his last two oval starts. (Continued)