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Before the Green

Roush also has house in Cali, but he has company

By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
August 29, 2008
01:43 PM EDT
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Two weeks ago Michigan was billed as the House of Roush and his drivers swept the top 10; well then, Auto Club Speedway is Jack's guest house.

The 2-mile tracks of Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway have a lot in common. Identical in shape and similar in overall configuration, the track in California was built from the blueprint of its older cousin and so it comes as no surprise that drivers who run well on one, excel on the other. Especially in late summer, the proximity of the races on these tracks ensures that intangibles like momentum and the makeup of the crew are the same, which is great news for fantasy owners looking for a nice, predictable race.

Start with a lineup that looks a lot like the one that was successful at Michigan for the 3M Performance 400, but remember that Auto Club is a different track. Roush racers should anchor your roster again this week, but they are less likely to sweep the top 10 as other marquee drivers have their own legacy of strength in California.

The longstanding powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports is tied with Roush in terms of overall victories at Auto Club, with three for Jeff Gordon, two for Jimmie Johnson and one with Kyle Busch for a total of six. Roush has victories with Matt Kenseth earning two plus one apiece for Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin and Kurt Busch. Both owners are more than capable of taking sole possession of the top spot following the Pepsi 500.

This year, Joe Gibbs Racing has risen to the level of Roush and Hendrick, which means that Kyle Busch has an excellent opportunity to challenge for the victory, as well, and the winner this week is not going to come as a surprise.

The Favorites

Carl Edwards is going to be the obvious favorite of most fantasy owners. He's near-perfect on the 2-mile tracks with one poor finish each at Auto Club and Michigan and back-to-back victories in the past two races of 2008 to give him momentum entering the weekend. Other than a 29th-place finish on this track in February 2007, he's finished sixth or better in every attempt he's made at Auto Club. Better still, one of his three victories in the past four weeks came at Michigan. Winning three consecutive races in NASCAR is incredibly difficult, but if he misses it won't be by much.

On this track, in recent years, Matt Kenseth has been just as strong as Edwards. In his past six attempts at Auto Club, he has two victories, three top-fives and a worst finish of seventh. In fact, he has an odd little record of three consecutive seventh-place finishes in the Labor Day weekend race and if fantasy owners knew they were guaranteed another such result, he would certainly be worth his salary cap. More likely, seventh is the worst-case scenario for the No. 17 this week and the upside of starting him is immense.

This week, however, it is not as simple as filling your roster with Roushketeers and forgetting about the rest of the field. Hendrick Motorsports has been incredibly strong on this track with Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon leading the way. The driver of the No. 48 has had a rough couple of weeks after sustaining crash damage at both Michigan and Bristol to finish outside the top 15 and the team needs to build some momentum to take into the Chase. This is a great place to get it because Johnson has finishes of third, first and second in his past three attempts. In 11 starts there, he has never finished worse than 16th, but his record is still a little uneven. He has seven finishes of third or better compared to four results of 11th or worse, so there is no middle ground for Johnson.

Auto Club Speedway

Fast facts

What Pepsi 500
When 8:17 p.m. ET Sunday
TV ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
Radio MRN (Sirius Ch. 28), 7:15 ET

Dark Horses

Under other circumstances, Jeff Gordon would be a favorite at Auto Club. His three victories there lead the league and three of his past four races there have ended in top-fives, but fantasy owners are still shell-shocked by how badly he's run during the summer months. Their hope lies in two facts, however; Gordon was strong at Michigan before he cut a tire and slammed the wall and he had a top-three car for most of the night at Bristol. If he fits a niche on your roster give him the start, but don't mortgage the rest of the lineup to make room.

Like Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne is another driver who experienced back-to-back problems at Michigan and Bristol, but his tribulations were much more severe. A blown engine on the 2-mile track and a crash on the short course sent him home 40th in both. Unless the tide has completely turned on this team, Auto Club should provide much needed relief. In his past six races there, he has accumulated one victory and five top-10s. He's run into trouble on this 2-miler twice in his career, but when he's been running at the end of the race he's swept the top 15 and has an average result of 6.4.

Truer dark horses may be found further down the salary cap pricelist. Brian Vickers has been strong on the 2-mile tracks since he joined Red Bull Racing Team, even while he's struggled elsewhere. Last year, three of his four races at Auto Club and Michigan ended in top-10 finishes; this year, he's finished 11th, fourth and seventh in three tries. Two weeks ago he won the pole and had a car capable of leading at Michigan during portions of the race. A rising tide brings up all ships in the harbor, so you also should pay attention to A.J. Allmendinger this week, although he shouldn't automatically be added to your roster before practice is complete.

Kurt Busch is having a miserable year, but he should get a brief reprieve this week. Last year, he swept the top 10 on this track, but he's occasionally been great at Auto Club. In 2002 and 2003, he finished second and first, respectively. He added another third-place finish in 2005, and while he is almost certainly not going to add another top-five to his resume, a 13th like he scored in February's race would still make him a good value at his salary cap level.

Video
Mike Bell previews the Pepsi 500 at Fontana

The End

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Fantasy Power Ranking

2-mile tracks (past three years)
Driver Power Avg.
Jimmie Johnson 6.27
Carl Edwards 6.37
Kyle Busch 6.90
Matt Kenseth 8.04
Jeff Gordon 8.66
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10.49
Tony Stewart 11.42
Greg Biffle 11.48
Brian Vickers 13.11
Kurt Busch 13.60
Jeff Burton 14.13
Kasey Kahne 14.54
Martin Truex Jr. 14.54
Denny Hamlin 15.23
Kevin Harvick 16.16
David Ragan 18.30
Clint Bowyer 20.40
Casey Mears 20.85
Jamie McMurray 22.49
Ryan Newman 23.43
Patrick Carpentier 23.76
Elliott Sadler 24.32
David Reutimann 26.53
Travis Kvapil 26.96
Bobby Labonte 27.43
Michael Waltrip 27.73
Robby Gordon 28.51
Paul Menard 28.56
Sam Hornish Jr. 29.04
Dave Blaney 29.05
Reed Sorenson 29.05
A.J. Allmendinger 29.11
David Gilliland 29.22
Joe Nemechek 29.85
Scott Riggs 30.51
Johnny Sauter 32.06
Juan Montoya 32.47
Ken Schrader 33.40
Marcos Ambrose 33.45
Kyle Petty 33.96
Aric Almirola 35.00
Tony Raines 35.19
Regan Smith 35.79
Mike Skinner 37.63
Brad Coleman 38.78

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