Countdown to the Chase

The Race to the Chase concludes this weekend at Richmond:

5 -- Drivers who have clinched a Chase berth

• Kyle Busch
• Carl Edwards
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Jimmie Johnson
• Jeff Burton

Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick need only to start the race to clinch a Chase berth.

Realistically, five spots remain. The clinch scenarios that would lock up Chase spots for ...

Date	Track	Time	TV
Sept. 6	Richmond	7 p.m.	ABC

All times ET

Tony Stewart
• Finish 36th
• Finish 37th and lead at least one lap
• Finish 40th and lead the most laps

Matt Kenseth
• Finish 26th
• Finish 28th and lead at least one lap
• Finish 30th and lead the most laps

Jeff Gordon
• Finish 24th
• Finish 25th and lead at least one lap
• Finish 28th and lead the most laps

Denny Hamlin
• Finish 21st
• Finish 22nd and lead at least one lap
• Finish 25th and lead the most laps

The scenarios for Stewart, Kenseth, Gordon and Hamlin are regardless of how other drivers finish (assuming there are no ties for most laps led).

After that, the points get tighter ...

Clint Bowyer is 12th, 17 points ahead of David Ragan and 48 points ahead of Kasey Kahne. There are a number of different scenarios that could play out that would give Bowyer a Chase spot, but simply put: Bowyer can clinch a spot by either winning; or finishing second and leading the most laps; or third and leading the most laps.

Regardless of other drivers' finishes, Ragan clinches if he wins and leads the most laps. Other clinching scenarios -- involving certain finishes by both Bowyer and Kahne -- also exist for Ragan.

Kahne's road is bumpier. At Richmond, he needs to finish 48 points ahead of Bowyer and 31 points ahead of Ragan to clinch a spot.

Bowyer, Ragan and Kahne

A closer look at the three drivers on the bubble:

• Bowyer has three top-10 finishes in four starts at RIR, including a victory this past May.

• Ragan has three starts at RIR, with one top-five and a 17th-place finish in this season's spring race.

• Kahne appears to have the edge; nine starts, one victory, five top-10s.

4 -- Past champions eyeing another title

• Two-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson
• Two-time champion Tony Stewart
• 2003 champion Matt Kenseth
• Four-time champion Jeff Gordon

3 -- Runner-up finishes in the past four RIR races for ...

Kyle Busch, who has yet to win at Richmond. He has finished in the top five in six of seven starts with a Driver Rating of 110.6 and an Average Running Position of 7.1 at Richmond.

2 -- This is the second-closest margin -- 17 points -- at the Chase cut-off race

Only 17 points separate 13th-place David Ragan from 12th-place Clint Bowyer. In 2005, 11th-place Ryan Newman was only one point outside the top 10, which was then the Chase cut-off.

Since the Chase's inception in 2005, three drivers have moved into the playoffs on the heels of their RIR results: Jeremy Mayfield in 2004; Newman in 2005; and Kasey Kahne in 2006.

1 -- Cup Series start for ...

Joey Logano -- if he makes the field. Without the safety net of a guaranteed starting spot via the car owner points (the top 35 are guaranteed starts), Logano will have to make the field based on his qualifying speed (6 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN2). He will drive the the No. 02 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Logano also plans on running five more Cup events this season in the No. 96 Toyota -- Sept. 14 at New Hampshire, Sept. 28 at Kansas, Oct. 11 at Charlotte, Oct. 19 at Martinsville and Nov. 2 at Texas.

Next season he takes over Tony Stewart's No. 20 Toyota.

• Superstore: Logano's No. 02 Toyota die-cast | More Logano gear