Twelve may enter, but really only three can win

The other night I heard someone ask, in the wake of Jimmie Johnson's overpowering win at Fontana: "So, is it a three-man Chase now?"

And the NASCAR-speak came close to pouring out of me like wine from a busted glass jug.

"What do you mean? Anyone can win. It's wide-open -- a 12-man show. Homestead will tell the tale."

Then I did the math, and you know what?

• Send Dave your thoughts
• Dave's Community page

It may not be a three-man Chase -- because 12 guys will actually qualify for the fifth annual Chase following Saturday night's race at Richmond International Raceway. But Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Johnson are fairly prohibitive favorites to win the 10-race championship "playoff."

The numbers say so.

Now, the dangerous thing about numbers is that you can generally make them tell any tale you'd like them to. But in this case, it's hard to numerically make a case for anyone to upset these three and win the 2008 title.

Whether you explicitly believe in momentum or not, it's a fact that confidence breeds success, and success tends to breed more success; and in a 10-race playoff, that's critical.

And when you look at the last six races, specifically the last five oval track events and the Watkins Glen road race -- because The Glen just happens to fall in that critical stretch run to the cutoff for the Chase -- the favored trio is head, shoulders and upper torso above the rest.

They've won all six races: Three by Edwards, two by Johnson and one by Busch. The trio has dominated Victory Lane this season, winning 17 of 25 races led by Busch (eight), Edwards (six) and Johnson (three).

Only one other driver, Chase hopeful by the faintest of glimmers Kasey Kahne, has won more than once.

In order to win races you have to lead laps, and in the last six events the lead trio has absolutely dominated that category. Busch has led laps in four of the six events for a total of 515. Johnson has led in five of the six, for 347. And Edwards has led four races for 225 laps.

The next-greatest number of laps led is Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s paltry-by-comparison 85 laps in four races and after that, it falls off to Denny Hamlin's 26 laps led at Indy. (Continued)